Projected Conditions

Projecting air temperature changes allows natural resources planners and managers to predict the impacts climate change might pose on Washington’s natural habitat. Presented above are projected 30-year average daily minimum and maximum air temperatures by month for major watersheds on the Olympic Peninsula throughout the 21st century. Projections are based on an aggressive emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) which assumes little to no mitigation or emissions reduction. 60-year historical averages are shown for comparison and two emissions scenarios are presented.

See the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report for more information on these scenarios in the “Links” section.

The above figures are based on data derived from the publically available 1/16-degree air temperature projections downscaled using the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA) statistical downscaling method. These grids span from 2006-2099 and are downscaled and averaged from 10 different global climate models and use the Livneh et. al. (2013) historical air temperature grids as the training dataset. The air temperatures have been averaged over the watershed area to produce watershed-scale projected climatologies.

Not all of these watersheds are part of the PNPTC study area. These figures are for illustration purposes only and are not to be used in any reporting or research. For more information, please contact the PNPTC.

The above images illustrate the areas that will be inundated by water with varying sea level rise amounts (up to 6 feet higher than the historical average high tides). Sea level is expected to increase throughout the world. Geologic uplift can offset this increase but subsidence can compound its effects making sea level change more pronounced in some areas than in others.

Coastal erosion, flooding, and loss of habitat are expected with sea level rise. Even with only moderate sea level rise, many coastal habitats and infrastructure will be impacted. Note that the above scenarios assume topography to remain the same and don’t take into account storm surge, erosion rates and land uplift or subsidence.

These projections are based on publicly available data retrieved from NOAA’s Digital Coast website. For more information, see the links section of this website. These figures are for illustration purposes only and are not to be used in any reporting or research. For more information, please contact the PNPTC.